Was this the snow storm predicted by Farmer's Almanac?
Mon, 14 Mar 2011 20:21:47 GMT —
So by now I TMm guessing you TMve heard that the Farmer TMs Almanac is calling for a winter storm in late March and you're probably hoping last night TMs surprise snow was it. Well thanks to many of you for asking the WeatherLAB team this question, What have you heard about a blizzard in late March?After extensive research (ie buying/reading two versions of the Farmer TMs Almanac) I was and am completely confused. Why? Because there isn TMt any mention of any significant snow and I found there is more than one version of the Farmer's Almanac.Harris TM Farmer TMs Almanac says, ... Bands of showers and thunderstorms most likely about March 3-6, 16-18, 22-25, 29-31. Rain mixing with or changing to snow in the north. Even though last night TMs storm doesn TMt fall in that range, it TMs close enough for me. The Old Farmer TMs Almanac mentions snow mid-late March. ... 15-19 Snow, then sunny, cold. 20-24 Snow, then sunny, warm. Again... the timing is close but the temperature profile doesn TMt match this week at all. Sunny? Yes. Cold? No. Not with highs hitting the 70s this week.After questioning many of you on which version of the Farmer TMs Almanac you heard this from, I didn TMt hear any response until early this morning when a Facebook post simply said, The online version. I visited the websites of the versions that I have and found the answers in the book match what's online.Upon searching for Farmers Almanac in Google I noticed a link that said, Farmers TM Almanac Long Range Weather Forecasts & Predictions. After landing here and reading what is says for Missouri TMs Region, this online version says, March 24-27th A major storm evolves over the Southern Rockies and pushes eastward, bringing significant snows to Kansas and Missouri. Less snow farther north. So now is the time to ponder what is significant? Today I TMm reading your posts on Facebook and Twitter and seeing ranges from 18-30 with many cliche TM 24 inches predicted on March 24. Is it possible? Yes. Is this likely??? Probably not! And here TMs why. The rule of thumb when forecasting snow is a ratio of 10 to 1. Meaning 1 inch of water equals 10 inches of snow. Most of our spring snow storms bring a very wet and heavy snow which cuts down this ratio. To give you an example, using last night TMs snowfall (not including totals from today), the ratio was between 1:1 and 2:1. So the 2 inches on the ground this morning was almost 2 inches of liquid water. Since this usually is the case with a March snowfall, it TMs very unlikely that a 20 inch snowfall will occur next week.While a strong storm may be possible on March 24th, it is impossible to say if it TMs going to bring any significant snowfall. Farmers' Almanac editor Peter geiger says he's sticking by the almanac's snowy predition for next week. He says, "At The Farmers' Almanac, we do our weather two years in advance. We have a formula that we apply. I try not to screw it up by changing my mind along the way. I just kind of stay with what we are calling for. We are saying significant snow on the 24th through the 27th, in that time period."With this version, Farmers' Almanac forecasters use a mathematical formula that's applied to sunspot activity, planet positions and the effect the moon has on the Earth.Mizzou Meteorologist Dr. Tony Lupo says the Farmers' Almanac does a good job on long range forecasts for entire seasons, but on short range predictions, it's a roll of the dice. He says, "This year, they (Farmers' Almanac) called for a colder than normal winter. Their forecast actually agreed with mine. Both of ours disagreed with the CPC's (Climate Prediction Center) forecast in Washington, and we were both right."This latest round of snow puts Columbia over 50 inch mark for only the second winter in the past 120 years.Do you believe the Farmer's Almanac prediction of another major snow storm? Tell us below!Mark Slavit contributed to the content of this story.