June weather outlook

June can be a crazy month of weather in Mid-Missouri. As spring begins to let go and summer tries to take control, this can lead to some battles between air-masses over the area. This can lead to some impressive swings in temperatures and some impressive rain and thunderstorms. So, lets jump into the June forecast!

Temperature & Precipitation

Temperatures in June should be close to normal this month. There are a few reasons for this prediction: The first reason is there isnâ??t much of a drought across Missouri -- meaning soil moisture levels are at an okay level. The more moisture the soil contains usually means there will be more moisture in the air â?? generally speaking that is. This helps temperatures from getting too far out of control. The drier the air, the easier it is for it to heat up during the day. Record temperatures will be hard to find this monthâ?¦ but there will be some hot days. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has Missouri in the equal chances for below or above normal temperatures. We should stay somewhere right in the middle with average June temperatures.

June 2014 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

In terms of precipitation, June is actually our second wettest month in Mid-Missouri, next to May. On average, Mid-Missouri picks up 4.47 inches of rain in June. And for the most part, I think June will hold to that this season. Expect several thunderstorm events to impact Mid-Missouri. While we are starting to transition away from Spring and into Summer, severe weather can still be a part of thunderstorms that develop in June, so that is always something I am keeping my eye on. In terms of precipitation outlooks from the CPC, we are in an area with slight above normal precipitation and that should hold true.

June 2014 precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Drought and Flooding

When I start making a forecast for the summer months, drought is always one question I get from many in Mid-Missouri. Overall, drought conditions across Mid-Missouri are pretty low. For the time being and through the month of June, the drought will stay in check. With timely rains from thunderstorms, soil moisture levels should be alright. Drought could become a concern later this summer especially in July and August.

Drought monitor of Missouri from the Nation Climate Data Center (NCDC) as of 29 May 2014

Looking at agriculture impacts, Dr. Tony Lupo, a professor of atmospheric science and a climate expert at the University of Missouri tells me that crops should â??fare wellâ?? through the month of June.

In terms of flooding, that should not be too much of an issue that we have to worry about. The major rivers and the contributories are well below flood stage at this time. Flash flood could be a concern during some stronger storms with heavy rainâ?¦ but those only last a few hours because rivers return to their normal stages.

If drought sets in, we start to turn our eyes toward the tropics for some rain chances. Tropical storms are often the only â??drought busterâ?? we see during a warm summer. This year, with El Nino taking control, tropical activity will likely be lower. Lupo tells me the Atlantic Hurricane season should be "milder, which means less chance that the remnants of one of these will impact Missouri.â??

El Nino

We look a lot at ocean temperatures, particularly in the tropical portions of the Pacific when making long range forecasts. We are still in a neutral phase, however we continue to make the slow and steady trek toward El Nino. Typically an El Nino summer in Missouri would favor a slightly cooler temperatures and slightly higher precipitation chances than on average. I donâ??t think that will necessarily be the case this summer because we are in the transition to El Nino and wonâ??t be fully within the grips of it. The full impacts of El Nino will likely be felt in the upcoming fall and winter, rather than this summer.

Looking ahead to what I will be watching for in July and August is how will El Nino start to impact our overall weather patterns and how does drought across other portions of the United States affect us in the Central Plainsâ?¦ but I will leave all of that for my July forecast.

How did we do with the May forecast:

As a part of these monthly forecasts, I want to go back and look at how the previous month's forecast went.

For the month of May I said we would be below average when it comes to rainfall and that happened. We officially picked up 3.05 inches of rain, which is 61% of the usual rainfall that we would get for the month of May. It is a bit surprising that our drought conditions arenâ??t a bit more severe in Mid-Missouri considering we were nearly 2 inches behind on rain for May.

As for temperatures, the month of May had some big swings. The highest temperature we saw was 89° and the lowest we saw was 37°. I said in my forecast that when the month was said and done we would see temperatures slightly below average and that didnâ??t end up happening, even though we started the month off on a very cold note. We saw a stretch of very warm weather with temperatures that were very close to breaking records, however, we never officially broke any temperatures records. We were about 2° above normal when looking at the overall average temperature.

Overall, I think the first monthly forecast went well.