July weather outlook for Mid-Missouri

NEW BLOOMFIELD, MO -- July brings us to the heart of summer in Mid-Missouri. Statistically, July is the warmest month of the year. Drought tends to, at times, start to creep into the picture, which can have lasting impacts on our weather through the rest of the summer and beyond. As I put together my forecast for July, a few things I look at are the storm track, ENSO phase (El Nino/La Nina) and drought in other parts of the county. Letâ??s jump into my July forecast.
Temperature & Precipitation
As stated above, July is typically the warmest month. In years past, we have seen some extremely hot summers, but I donâ??t think that will be the case for July 2014. Yes, it will be hot, but it should not be anything we are not use to here in Missouri. There are couple of reasons for this prediction. We received 5.07 inches of rain in June and 19.89 inches in 2014. This means that soil moisture levels are higher than the last few July's in Mid-Missouri. Higher soil moisture levels usually translate into more moisture in the atmosphere â?? higher dew points and relative humidity (relatively speaking). In summers where we have had a more prevalent drought, we have seen higher than average temperatures in the month of July which is due to a drier airmass over the Midwest. The Climate Prediction Center has the Mid-Missouri area in equal chances for above or below average temperatures. This means temperatures should be near normal when the temperatures data for the month are analyzed. The average temperature for the month is 77.3 degree (this takes into account everyday's high and low temperature through the month). The average high temperatures is 85.3 degrees (this is the average for each day's high temperature).While it is not uncommon to reach the 100 degree mark, getting to 100 degrees will be difficult, and prolonged periods of temperature above the century mark look highly unlikely. I also do not expect to see any record high temperatures in July either. By the end of the month, I think temperatures will end up right around the normal mark.

July 2014 temperature outlook from the CPC
Precipitation in July is typically around 4.37 inches. Generally, the storm track (polar jet stream) retreats way to the north in the summer months near the United States/Canadian border. This means that severe weather chances and heavy rain chances decrease a bit. The CPC has Mid-Missouri with equal chances for above and below normal rainfall -- though they show southern Missouri with slightly less than average rainfall. Data suggest that because we are not in a full-blown El Nino yet, precipitation will stay around normal through the month.

July 2014 precipitation outlook from the CPC

Drought & Flooding
Currently, western and southwestern Missouri are abnormally dry, while the rest of Missouri is not considered to be in any drought phase. Drought conditions could become a concern through July as the soil moisture starts to really dry out from the heat and the crops taking in all excess water. However, with normal rainfall expected through the month, a move toward a more moderate drought looks like it wonâ??t be too much of a concern for locations in Mid-Missouri, though I expect a bit more of the state to be considered "abnormally dry" by the end of the month. It is typical for soil to start to deplete some of moisture resevers deep within the soil.

Drought monitor for Missouri as of Thursday. June 28, 2014 from NOAA

Flooding does not look to be a huge concern for Mid-Missouri and the major rivers. There is some minor flooding upstream near Kansas City on the Missouri. Even with recent rains from big time thunderstorms over the last few days in Iowa and Nebraska, flooding, even minor, should not occur along the Missouri River in Mid-Missouri. Some moderate to major flooding in a few locations in the upper Midwest is occurring near Minneapolis, MN and Cedar Rapids, IA, but this flooding will not translate into widespread flooding on the Mississippi. As always though, stronger thunderstorms with heavy rains can cause some flash flooding, but as we know the rivers and creeks swell up and go right back down within a few hours.Looking ahead, my eyes will turn toward the building heat and drought over the southwest portion of the United States â?? strengthening drought here could start to play a roll in our weather toward the end of the month and into August. I will also be watching the move toward El Nino and how that will impact our weather in the fall and winter, but look for more on that and more in my August forecast!
Highlights for July
*Average temperatures â?? nothing extreme, record temperatures unlikely.*Precipitation around normal. drought conditions should not be too hard core, though parts of the area could see abnormally dry conditions by the end of the month.*Still not in El Nino yet, however, we continue to move toward it.
How did I do with the June Forecast?
I thought precipitation would be slightly above average and we ended up with a surplus of rainfall for the month. The monthly average is 4.47 inches and we received 5.07 inches -- this was 13% above average. With El Nino not in place yet, along with some other factors, I thought temperatures would end up close to average and they were. We were about 1.4 degrees above normal for the month. Click here for the June 2014 forecast